


“More research is needed.”
“The science isn’t settled.”
“Correlation isn’t causation.”








Major reform in campaign finance / donation transparency — if laws tighten, anonymity and dark-money flows shrink.
|
Name / Network |
Why They Endure /What Makes Them Resilient |
|---|---|
|
Sixteen Thirty Fund (and affiliated Arabella Advisors funds) |
Long-standing “dark money” powerhouse for the left. Provides fiscal-sponsorship and funding to many progressive causes and campaigns. As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, it can channel money — often anonymously — into activism, ballot initiatives, and elections. Wikipedia+1 |
|
Berger Action Fund (network tied to Swiss billionaire support of progressive causes) |
Serves as a major donor funnel for progressive policy agendas. Its role shows how international money and large-scale philanthropy can influence U.S. politics regardless of which party is in charge. Wikipedia+1 |
|
Priorities USA Action |
One of the largest Democratic-leaning super PACs. Has shown flexibility in shifting strategy (e.g. moving toward digital campaigning rather than just TV ads), which suggests institutional agility in changing political climates. Wikipedia |
|
American Bridge 21st Century |
A major liberal opposition-research and election campaign group—effective at media and messaging work. Such infrastructures are portable: no matter who’s in power, they can redirect resources toward oversight, opposition, or new causes. Wikipedia |
|
Tides Foundation / Tides Network |
A long-standing donor-advised fund and fiscal-sponsorship network. Its versatile structure lets wealthy donors fund causes under the radar — meaning it can remain influential regardless of which party holds power. Wikipedia+1 |
|
Major Conservative Mega-Donors (e.g. Richard Uihlein & family, Scaife-linked foundations, etc.) |
These “big-money backers” have deep pockets and substantial influence on think tanks, policy-planning networks, and regulatory lobbying. Their funds tend to follow structural interests (tax law, business regulation, corporate incentives) — which can often survive major party shifts. DeSmog+2The Good Men Project+2 |
|
Embedded Think Tanks and Policy Networks (e.g. Heritage Foundation, Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI), and other longtime policy infrastructure) |
These institutions provide long-term ideological frameworks, produce research, influence judiciary nominations, shape legislation drafts — and have memberships, staffs, and networks that outlast electoral cycles. DeSmog+1 |
|
Financial-industry donors and Super-PAC backers (e.g. Kenneth C. Griffin, other hedge-fund and Wall Street funders) |
Money from big finance often plays both ends: campaign donations, policy lobbying, influence over regulation. Because their interest is often stability, deregulation, and favorable economic policy — not always party ideology — they can pivot if a left administration offers similar benefits. Fiscal Report+1 |
| Leonard Leo | Arabella Advisors |
|---|---|
| Builds and steers a network | Builds and steers a network |
| Operates mostly out of public view | Operates mostly out of public view |
| Uses nonprofits and fiscal vehicles | Uses nonprofits and fiscal vehicles |
| Focuses on long-term institutional outcomes | Focuses on long-term institutional outcomes |
| Rarely the public face of campaigns | Rarely the public face of campaigns |
Arabella Advisors dissolved in late 2025 and transferred its services to Sunflower Services. That organizational change does not alter the relevance of what follows. This discussion focuses on the methods, structures, and influence models that operated under Arabella’s umbrella—models that continue to exist across the political spectrum regardless of name or branding.
If you’ve read about Leonard Leo and wondered whether there’s an equivalent force operating on the other side of the political spectrum, the short answer is: yes — but it looks different.
If you are unfamiliar with Leonard Leo then I suggest you read our brief on him, it will make my cross references here clearer.
Rather than centering on one highly visible figure, progressive influence has tended to operate through organizational networks. One of the most significant of those is Arabella Advisors.
This is not a critique or an endorsement. It’s an attempt to understand how modern political influence actually works.
Arabella Advisors is a for-profit consulting firm that specializes in managing and supporting nonprofit organizations and advocacy efforts. Its influence comes less from public messaging and more from infrastructure.
Arabella administers several large nonprofit funds, including:
The Sixteen Thirty Fund
The New Venture Fund
The Hopewell Fund
The Windward Fund
These funds act as fiscal sponsors, meaning they legally host and manage hundreds of projects that may not have their own independent nonprofit status.
In practical terms, this allows advocacy campaigns to:
Launch quickly
Share administrative resources
Receive funding efficiently
Operate under existing legal umbrellas
This structure is entirely legal and widely used across the nonprofit world.
Unlike traditional nonprofits with a single mission and brand, Arabella’s model supports many separate initiatives at once, often focused on:
Voting and election policy
Climate and environmental advocacy
Healthcare access
Judicial and legal reform
Democracy and governance issues
Most people encountering these efforts don’t see “Arabella” at all. They see:
A campaign name
A policy group
A ballot-issue committee
An issue-specific advocacy organization
That’s not secrecy — it’s organizational design.
Criticism of Arabella’s network usually centers on three issues:
1. Donor opacity
Some of the funds administered through the network do not publicly disclose individual donors, which raises concerns similar to those voiced about conservative dark-money groups.
2. Scale and coordination
Because many projects are housed under a small number of fiscal sponsors, critics argue this can concentrate influence in ways that are hard for the public to track.
3. Distance from local impact
National funding routed through professionalized networks can shape outcomes in local or state-level debates without local communities fully understanding where the support originated.
These concerns mirror critiques made of conservative influence networks — which is precisely why Arabella is worth understanding.
Supporters argue that Arabella’s structure:
Improves efficiency
Reduces administrative duplication
Allows rapid response to emerging issues
Helps smaller or newer causes compete in an expensive political environment
They also point out that conservative networks have used similar structures for decades — often more visibly and more successfully — and that progressive donors were slow to build comparable infrastructure.
Arabella Advisors isn’t the progressive version of a political party, a campaign, or a single leader.
It’s something subtler:
An influence platform — not for persuasion, but for coordination.
That makes it powerful, and it also makes it easy to misunderstand.
Just as Leonard Leo represents how conservative legal influence became institutionalized, Arabella represents how progressive advocacy adapted to a landscape where money, law, and organization matter as much as ideas.
Seeing Arabella Advisors clearly helps avoid two common mistakes:
Believing influence only flows from one side
Confusing infrastructure with ideology
Modern politics is less about speeches and more about systems — systems that decide which ideas get sustained, funded, and repeated over time.
Understanding those systems doesn’t require agreement.
It requires attention.
The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies (often called “FedSoc”) is a major American organization of conservative and libertarian lawyers, judges, law students, and scholars. Founded in 1982 by law students at Yale, Harvard, and the University of Chicago, it started as a way to challenge what its founders saw as dominant liberal ideas in law schools.Key Principles (straight from their mission):
It’s not a lobbying group or political party — it claims to be non-partisan and focuses on open debate. They host events, panels, and speeches with speakers from all sides (though most align conservative/libertarian).Structure:
Influence:
Critics say it’s too partisan and has shifted the courts rightward. Supporters say it promotes intellectual diversity and constitutional fidelity.The James Madison ConnectionThe society’s logo is a silhouette of James Madison (4th U.S. President, “Father of the Constitution,” co-author of The Federalist Papers). They see themselves as heirs to Madison’s ideas on limited government and checks and balances.
There is no separate major organization called the “Madison Society” directly paired with the Federalist Society. “Madison Society” refers to various unrelated groups (e.g., Second Amendment advocacy, university alumni clubs, or progressive counterparts like the American Constitution Society). The “Federalist and Madison Societies” likely refers to the Federalist Society’s strong ties to James Madison’s legacy.In short: The Federalist Society is the big player in conservative legal circles, proudly Madison-inspired. It’s all about debating ideas to keep government limited and judges neutral.For more: Visit fedsoc.org or read The Federalist Papers for the original inspiration!
You don’t need to follow these closely to get the point. Most of you already recognize the pattern.
During multiple Supreme Court nominations over the last decade, tens of millions of dollars were spent by groups with neutral-sounding names, many of them structured as nonprofits that do not disclose donors.
The ads weren’t about law — they were about emotion, fear, and identity.
The funding sources? Largely invisible.
Oh yeah.
In several states, outside money has flooded judicial elections — races most voters barely notice — because judges decide issues like tort law, environmental regulation, and labor disputes.
Small states. Big money. Quiet races.
Oh yeah.
Energy, mining, and real estate interests have repeatedly funded campaigns against local ballot initiatives — zoning rules, environmental protections, or tax measures — using PACs that make them look like grassroots efforts.
The campaign feels local.
The money often isn’t.
Oh yeah.
School board races and education policy fights increasingly attract outside funding from ideological organizations on both the right and the left — often routed through nonprofits that don’t disclose donors.
Parents think it’s a local debate.
The funding strategy was written elsewhere.
Oh yeah.
Ever see ads that say things like:
“Tell Senator X to protect freedom”
“Call Representative Y and demand action”
These often come from groups legally classified as issue advocacy, not campaigns — which allows them to spend heavily without revealing who’s paying.
Same effect. Different label.
Oh yeah.
In lower-population states, a few million dollars can completely reshape a political conversation — making them attractive targets for national organizations seeking influence at a bargain price.
Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, West Virginia — none of them are accidental.
Oh yeah.


Most people outside of Montana don’t think about Montana much — and that’s exactly the point.
Montana matters here not because it has all the answers, but because it raises a question many places are quietly facing:
What happens when a community tries to limit outside influence structurally instead of just complaining about it?
To ground that question in reality, here are two useful references:
Official proposed ballot text and description (Montana Secretary of State) — this is the government’s own page listing what the initiative says it would do. Montana Proposed 2026 Ballot Issues Page (Official Text & Summary)
Plain-language summary of the initiative statement — a concise version of what the amendment would change. Group Releases Text of Proposed Montana Constitutional Amendment to Curb Dark Money (Summary)
With those in hand, you can always look at the source language while reading this section.
The change in Montana law would simply not grant the corporations the power to give to candidates or causes, but would allow individuals to give, but those donations would be tracked.
The proposed legislation is the first-of-its-kind and takes a different approach to the problem of campaign finance in spending. For example, last year’s U.S. Senate race in Montana, which saw Republican Tim Sheehy beat incumbent Democrat Jon Tester, had more than $275 million spent in a state of roughly 1.2 million people.
“Basically, the only difference is that corporations won’t be able to spend in our elections,” Mangan said.
The specifics of the proposed constitutional amendment would carve out exceptions for organizations like political parties and even media organizations whose coverage could possibly run afoul of the amendment’s language.
“If a person wants to spend money, then they have to put their name on it. It’s full disclosure. That’s what this is all about,” Mangan said.
The Montana proposal — often referred to as the Montana Plan or the Transparent Election Initiative — is fundamentally different from traditional campaign finance reforms.
Instead of regulating spending directly, it would change the basic definition of what corporations and similar entities (“artificial persons”) are allowed to do in elections. In effect, it would:
Amend the state constitution to say corporations and other artificial entities have only the powers the constitution explicitly grants them.
Specifically ensure that corporations have no authority to spend money or anything of value on elections or ballot issues.
Leave open the possibility for political committees (not corporations) to spend money on elections.
Include enforcement provisions and severability clauses to protect parts of the law if others are ruled invalid. Montana Secretary of State+1
This isn’t the typical approach of saying “limit X amount” or “disclose Y.” It says, in essence:
If the state never gave a corporate entity the power to spend in politics in the first place, then it can’t do so now. Harvard Law Corporate Governance Forum
That’s why proponents describe it as a doctrine-based challenge to the framework established by Citizens United — not a straightforward campaign finance rule. Harvard Law Corporate Governance Forum
There are four big implications worth noting:
1. It reframes power, not just spending.
Instead of capping or reporting spending, it redefines who gets that power at all. That’s a deeper structural shift in how the political system treats corporations. Harvard Law Corporate Governance Forum
2. It acts at the level where consequences are visible.
When outside groups spend in small races or ballot campaigns, local voters often never see the circuit of influence. This initiative aims to shorten that circuit — even if imperfectly. Truthout
3. It shows how local contexts shape responses to national problems.
Dark money isn’t a national phenomenon only — it’s a distributed one, especially in low-attention environments like state and local elections. Montana’s approach reflects that reality. NonStop Local Montana
4. It illustrates why there’s “no one best fix.”
You’ll notice this proposal doesn’t:
Ban all political spending by wealthy individuals
Eliminate all influence from outside actors
End lobbying
And, according to some critics, may raise free speech or legal concerns if adopted wholesale Montana Free Press
What it does is test a structural lever that hasn’t been widely tried before: the state’s sovereign authority to grant or withhold corporate powers.
As of late 2025:
The Montana Attorney General has ruled the proposed initiative legally insufficient, arguing it combines multiple constitutional changes into one item and may affect more than a single subject. Montana Free Press
The organizers are planning to challenge that ruling and pursue placement on the 2026 ballot. Montana Free Press
This process — review, challenge, signature gathering — is itself part of what makes Montana a useful test case. It isn’t a finished story yet.
When you look at the initiative text and the summary together with your understanding of dark money and influence, here’s the clean takeaway:
Montana isn’t offering a pre-packaged solution.
It’s testing whether changing who can spend at all alters the dynamics of influence.
The state’s unique legal authority provides a laboratory for ideas that might be adapted elsewhere in different forms.
In other words:
Montana’s initiative isn’t the answer — it’s an experiment. Good data from experimentation — success or failure — gives other states something concrete to think with.

Why Simple Solutions Fail
Once people understand how dark money works, the next instinct is to ask:
“Why don’t we just ban it?”
That reaction is understandable — and it’s also where most discussions fall apart.
Political speech is protected broadly in the United States, not because it’s always noble, but because limiting it is dangerous. Any rule strong enough to silence bad actors is also strong enough to silence legitimate dissent.
That creates a hard tradeoff:
Regulate too lightly, and influence hides
Regulate too aggressively, and speech is chilled
There is no clean line that separates “acceptable” influence from “unacceptable” influence without collateral damage.
Money itself isn’t illegal. People are allowed to spend their own money advocating for causes they believe in.
The difficulty arises when:
Money becomes scalable
Influence becomes detached from consequences
The people paying don’t live with the outcomes
Banning money outright isn’t realistic. Limiting it too tightly just pushes it into new, often less visible channels.
Even well-written laws struggle in practice:
Agencies are underfunded
Rules are complex
Violations are hard to prove
Punishments arrive long after elections are over
By the time enforcement catches up, the decision has already been made.
The reason dark money persists isn’t because no one has tried to fix it. It’s because every fix runs into real-world constraints.
Understanding those constraints doesn’t mean giving up.
It means being honest about what’s possible.
That honesty is the starting point for any solution that has a chance of lasting.
Why Local Answers Matter More Than National Ones

If there is no single best fix, the next question becomes:
“At what level should we even try?”
The instinct in modern politics is to look upward — to Congress, the courts, or national leaders. But many of the problems tied to dark money don’t originate at the national level. They concentrate locally.
In reality, many of the National Initiatives actually originated at the local level, they are designed, implemented and evaluated locally before they are introduced on a National Level. Although what works here doesn’t work there is true. Money is spent wisely and pilot plans or test runs are judged in different environments.
One of the most outwardly confusing observations is why actions or interference will be implemented in one locality or region and not another. When this happens you must step back and follow either the money or the vote. We may be led to believe the new infrastructure is for the communities health, but will it still be supported when the oil fracking or coal mining, or.. or.. is no longer profitable to the corporation located many states away without any other financial ties to the local population.
National rules have to work everywhere:
In resource states and service economies
In rural communities and major cities
In places with very different risks and incentives
That forces compromise — and compromise often produces rules that are too blunt to be effective and too rigid to adapt.
Local and state systems, by contrast:
Have clearer lines of cause and effect
Face specific pressures rather than abstract ones
Can tailor responses to their own vulnerabilities
What works in one state may fail in another — and that’s not a flaw. It’s reality.
When decisions are made locally:
The people affected are easier to identify
The consequences are harder to ignore
The distance between influence and impact is shorter
That doesn’t eliminate outside pressure, but it makes it harder to hide.
Focusing on local solutions isn’t about shutting out the world or pretending states exist in a vacuum.
It’s about restoring balance:
National rules set guardrails
Local systems decide how much influence they can absorb
That balance is what federalism was designed to provide.




Part 4: When Responsibility Moves Quietly – Healthcare in America
Part 4: When Responsibility Moves Quietly
When health policy stalls, something important happens that is easy to miss.
Responsibility doesn’t disappear.
It moves.
And almost always, it moves away from systems and toward individuals.
This shift rarely arrives with an announcement. There is no press conference declaring that people are now on their own. Instead, the change shows up gradually, wrapped in reasonable language.
Words like:
“Choice”
“Flexibility”
“Consumer-driven”
“Personal responsibility”
On their own, these words sound empowering. In practice, they often signal something else.
What Happens When Policy Pauses
When governments delay, defer, or avoid clear health policy decisions, the system still has to function.
Care still costs money. Providers still need to be paid. Insurers still need to price risk. Employers still need to decide what they will offer.
In the absence of coordinated policy, the burden of navigating those decisions shifts downward.
From institutions → to employers.
From employers → to families.
From families → to individuals.
No one votes on this transfer. It happens quietly, through defaults.
How “Choice” Becomes a Signal
Choice is not inherently bad.
But when choice expands while guidance, coverage, or protection does not, it becomes a signal that responsibility has shifted.
Instead of asking:
“Is this covered?”
People are asked to consider:
Which plan?
Which network?
Which deductible?
Which out-of-pocket maximum?
Which exclusions?
These are not choices most people can make with confidence, especially under time pressure or medical stress.
Yet the presence of choice creates the impression that outcomes are the result of personal decisions, not structural design.
The Human Experience of the Shift
Most people never engage with health policy directly.
They encounter it at moments of vulnerability:
A job change
A pregnancy
A diagnosis
A cancellation notice
A premium increase
At that point, the question isn’t ideological. It’s practical:
Am I covered?
Is my family covered?
What happens if something goes wrong?
When responsibility has already shifted, the answers are often unclear — not because people weren’t paying attention, but because the system expects them to manage complexity that used to be handled upstream.
Why This Shift Often Goes Unnoticed
The transfer of responsibility feels normal because it happens gradually.
Each step can be justified:
Employers reassess costs
Insurers adjust plans
Governments emphasize flexibility
No single change looks unreasonable.
But taken together, they redefine who bears the risk.
By the time people realize what has happened, the system presents the outcome as a matter of personal choice rather than public design.
Setting Up What Comes Next
Once responsibility moves to individuals, complexity becomes the gatekeeper.
Understanding plans, coverage limits, and tradeoffs becomes essential — and increasingly difficult.
In the next part, we’ll look at the difference between having choices and having meaningful coverage, and why those two things are often confused.
Next: Part 5 — Choice vs. Coverage
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