More on DOGE — What the Reporting Shows

1. Big Discrepancy Between Claimed and Real Savings

   • Politico found that whereas DOGE claims ~$54.2 billion in “contract cancellation” savings, only $1.4 billion could be verified via clawbacks or de-obligations. Politico

   • NPR’s analysis matched DOGE’s contract list to public spending databases and estimated only $2.3 billion in actual or likely real savings from the canceled contracts. NPR

   • DOGE has repeatedly revised its “wall of receipts” downward: it quietly deleted billions in claimed savings after media scrutiny. NPR+2NPR+2

2. Many Contracts Yield No Real Savings

   • Nearly 40% of the contracts canceled by DOGE appear to produce zero savings, according to DOGE’s own posted “receipts.” CNBC+2https://www.wdtv.com+2

   • Why no savings? Because in many cases, those contracts had already been fully obligated — meaning the government had already committed the money (or even spent it). https://www.wdtv.com+1

   • As Charles Tiefer, a former government-contracting law professor, put it:

     “It’s like confiscating used ammunition … there’s nothing left in it.” https://www.wdtv.com

     

3. Accounting Tricks — Using “Ceiling Values”

   • A big part of the exaggeration comes from counting the maximum possible value (“ceiling”) of contracts instead of what was realistically going to be spent. PolitiFact+2NPR+2

   • Some of the contracts DOGE lists are “blanket purchase agreements” (BPAs). These aren’t firm orders — more like catalogs: the government can order from them if it needs to. Canceling a BPA doesn’t always save money because not all the “ceiling” was going to be spent. CNBC

   • Experts say that using ceiling values inflates the numbers and misleads the public about how much real money is being saved. NPR+1

4. Major Reporting Errors and Corrections

   • One glaring error: DOGE originally listed an $8 billion ICE contract as canceled, but that contract was actually only $8 million. NPR

   • Another: a $655 million USAID contract was apparently listed 3 times, triple counting the same item. NPR

   • After scrutiny, DOGE removed or revised more than 1,000 entries from its “wall of receipts” — reducing its previously claimed large savings. Reuters

5. Lease & Workforce Claims Also Questioned

   • DOGE claims additional savings from canceled leases and workforce reductions, but some experts argue that even these numbers are overstated or lack clarity. NPR

   • For lease savings, cost-benefit questions emerge: terminating leases may have “savings,” but what are the long-term costs (or the lost value)? Wikipedia

   • On workforce: DOGE reportedly has pushed out or gotten buyouts from tens of thousands of federal workers, but the long-term impact on efficiency and government capacity is unclear. Le Monde.fr

6. Lack of Verifiable “Cash Back” to Treasury

   • Even if DOGE “saves” money (in its accounting), that doesn’t necessarily mean the money is returned to the Treasury. Some “savings” are theoretical — based on de-obligation, not actual cash recovered. Politico

   • Experts note: just because a contract is canceled doesn’t guarantee that all unspent money is clawed back. Politico+1

7. Transparency Questions

   • While DOGE claims to provide transparency (through its receipts page), many entries lack sufficient identifying information to verify in third-party databases. Politico

   • The methods for calculating some “savings” are opaque; for example, assumptions used in workforce or regulatory cuts are not always publicly disclosed. NPR

   • There are legal questions: DOGE isn’t a standard government agency — it operates more like a temporary advisory/cut-team. Some experts worry about the legality, authority, and oversight. CNBC

Why This Matters — From a “Your Money” Perspective

• Taxpayer Risk of Illusion: If DOGE’s numbers are largely based on inflated ceilings and double-counts, then the “savings” might be more PR than real return to taxpayers.

• False Justification for Cuts: Using exaggerated figures to justify cutting contracts or laying off workers can undermine agencies’ capacity, potentially weakening government services in critical areas.

• Accountability Gap: Without full transparency, the public and Congress may have a hard time tracking whether DOGE’s “savings” are actually materializing.

• Cost of Errors: If DOGE cancels contracts or leases based on wrong assumptions, there may be downstream costs (e.g., legal battles, replacing canceled work, rehiring, re-contracting) that erase some of the “savings.”

DOGE: Claims vs. Reality — A Timeline (2025)

A factual record of taxpayer-money savings claimed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), compared with verified outcomes from independent reporting.

JUNE–AUGUST 2025 – Verification Conflicts

Claim:
DOGE reaffirms its total as $54.2 billion in “eliminated waste.”

Reality:

• Many DOGE-listed agency savings do not appear in USAspending.gov, SAM.gov, or the Federal Procurement Data System.

• Some “termination savings” do not return money; they merely prevent future potential commitments.

• DOGE provides no comprehensive list of what money actually returned to Treasury.

Independent Estimates:

• Verified, cash-impact savings: $1.4–$2.3 billion
  (Politico, AP, NPR, Washington Post)

SEPTEMBER–NOVEMBER 2025 – Internal Resistance & Transparency Queries

Event:
Federal agencies begin to formally challenge DOGE numbers.

Examples:

• Several agencies confirm their obligations did not match DOGE’s posted amounts.

• Procurements canceled by DOGE were later reissued, reducing net savings.

• Watchdog groups request DOGE’s calculation methods; no formal response provided.

Independent Assessment:
DOGE’s true savings remain an order of magnitude smaller than its public claim.

What It Costs Taxpayers When Trump “Goes Home”

Since January, Trump has made roughly two dozen trips from Washington to his Florida properties.

Cost to taxpayers each time:
About $600,000 to $900,000 per trip — just for Air Force One to fly him there and back.

Total so far (Jan → Nov):
Around $15–20 million in Air Force One costs alone.

When you add Secret Service, lodging, motorcades, and support aircraft, the real taxpayer burden is much higher — but even the flight cost by itself shows the scale of waste.

Every time he goes home, your money goes with him.

What is behind the numbers.

Air Force One: Trump’s 2025 Travel Costs (Jan → Nov)

YOUR MONEY — Mar-A-Lago weekend trips Jan to Nov $17.4 million ?? We Can’t afford a Turkey, Pun Intended. Or should that be a Lame Duck.

Period covered: Jan 20, 2025 – mid-Nov 2025
Trip count: ~22 Air Force One round-trip visits to Mar-a-Lago / Florida region (based on AP, Palm Beach Post, local tracking, and pooled press coverage through November).

Cost per flight hour (public figures)

• Low: $142,380/hr (FOIA rate cited in press)

• Mid: $176,393/hr (NTUF FY-2020 rate)

• High: ~$200,000/hr (commonly used press estimate)

Average flight time per round trip: ~4.5 hours (FOIA examples for Florida trips)

Estimated Taxpayer Cost, Jan → Nov 2025

These figures are Air Force One operating costs only.

They do not include:

• Secret Service protection

• Local law enforcement overtime

• Lodging, convoy transport, temporary duty pay

• Cargo aircraft & support aircraft

• Pre-trip advance teams

Those items commonly add $300k–$1M+ per trip, meaning the full real cost to taxpayers is likely higher than the AF-One operating totals shown above.

Plain-Language Summary

Since returning to office in January, Trump has made roughly 22 Air Force One trips to his private Florida properties, costing taxpayers an estimated:

$14 million → $20 million

(AF-One operating costs alone, Jan–Nov 2025)

With full security & support costs included, the real total could exceed:

$20 million → $40 million

Notes

• Trip count reflects confirmed and pooled-press-reported presidential visits to Mar-a-Lago or Trump’s Florida golf properties through mid-November.

• Cost estimates are based on publicly released federal operating rates and FOIA-identified flight times for Florida runs.

• All numbers are ranges due to variations in published hourly rates and trip-specific flight times.

DOGE: Claims vs. Reality — A Timeline (2025)

A factual record of taxpayer-money savings claimed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), compared with verified outcomes from independent reporting.

MARCH 2025 – Removal of Over 1,000 Entries

Event:
Following press scrutiny, DOGE quietly removes 1,000+ contracts from its receipts page.

Claim:
DOGE states revisions were “routine cleanup.”

Reality:
Removed entries corresponded to:

• fully spent contracts

• duplicate listings

• entries with inflated ceiling amounts

• contracts that never had an obligation tied to them

• agencies correcting DOGE’s estimates internally

Independent Conclusion:
DOGE overstated savings by tens of billions through double-counting and ceiling-value inflation.
(Reuters, NPR, Politico)

APRIL–MAY 2025 – Lease & Workforce Claims Questioned

Claim:
DOGE says additional savings come from:

• lease terminations

• workforce reductions

• consolidation of federal operations

Issues Identified:

• Some leases required federal buyouts, reducing or eliminating net savings.

• Workforce reductions generate short-term savings but unclear long-term costs.

• DOGE does not publish full methodology behind its workforce-savings figures.

Independent Assessment:
Savings are “directionally real” but numerically opaque, with no clear link to Treasury returns.
(NPR, Le Monde)

DOGE: Claims vs. Reality — A Timeline (2025)

A factual record of taxpayer-money savings claimed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), compared with verified outcomes from independent reporting.

JANUARY 2025 – DOGE Launches, First Round of Claims

DOGE Announcement:
Trump administration and Elon Musk roll out the “Department of Government Efficiency,” posting an initial “Wall of Receipts.”

Claim:
DOGE states it has already produced $25–30 billion in savings from canceled federal contracts.

Verified Reality:
Most contracts were either:

• already completed,

• had minimal remaining obligations, or

• were “ceiling-value” framework agreements with no guaranteed spending.

Independent Estimates:

• Actual confirmed savings: under $1 billion

• Zero-savings contracts: roughly one-third of items listed (NPR, AP, Reuters)

FEBRUARY 2025 – Major Data Errors Emerge

Claim:
DOGE raises its advertised total to $54.2 billion in claimed savings.

Findings:

• An ICE contract listed as $8 billion was actually $8 million.

• A USAID contract for $655 million appears to be listed three separate times.

• Numerous contracts had obligation amounts far smaller than listed.

• Some contracts were canceled after completion, producing zero financial return.

Independent Estimates:

• Realistic savings: $1.2–$1.4 billion

• Contracts producing no savings: nearly 40%
  (CNBC, NPR, AP, WDTV)