Politics and the Pendulum – Part One, The Swingers
That’s a really good question — one a lot of people are asking right now. There’s no guarantee, but yes — many of the “puppet-masters” behind Donald Trump and his movement are likely to try to transition if the political pendulum swings to the left. Whether they’ll succeed — and whether the system allows them to — is another matter. Here’s how I see it, and what the road ahead might look like.
Why a Transition Is Likely for Some of the Power Brokers
• Their power isn’t personal — it’s structural
Most of the real influence lies with money, institutions, networks — not individuals. That means when political winds shift, these same actors can often pivot. For example:
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Money-management of campaigns, “dark money” flows, donor networks, and institutional influence tend to outlast any single candidate. OpenSecrets+2The Washington Post+2
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Organizations and infrastructure used to support one side can often be retooled.
• They chase influence, not ideology
For many of these behind-the-scenes players (donors, corporate funders, political consultants, media influencers), the goal is access and leverage — not loyalty to a party. If a left-leaning coalition offers equal or better opportunities for influence, some may jump.
• The “business model” of power prefers stability over polarization long-term
If polarization becomes too chaotic or destructive, even those on the right may see benefit in a reset. Power brokers value predictability for business, regulation, and profit — and a left-leaning administration that stabilizes markets or avoids social instability could be just as useful.
• Historical precedent: coalitions shift, not all witnesses the change
American political history shows that power centers can survive party shifts — sometimes just under new banners. Groups or donors who backed one party may hedge their bets when the balance changes.
But There Are Big Obstacles to a Smooth Transition
• Institutional memory & reputational baggage
If a donor or influencer spent years openly backing extreme ideologies or radical policies under Trump, a shift to support a left-leaning administration might cost them credibility — with their base, their existing networks, or with the new regime.
• Structural polarization — the system itself resists swapping sides
Recent research shows that polarization in Congress and among voters has deepened and become more entrenched. arXiv+1
Switching sides would feel to many like betrayal — a risky move even if the money and influence opportunities remain.
• Not all power brokers have flexible agendas
Some built business models around deregulation, “populist nationalism,” resource extraction, outsourcing — their interests might align poorly with many left-leaning policies (taxes, environmental regulations, social programs, etc.).
• Overhang of Trumpism — the ideology may outlast the man
Even if Trump falls, the ideological and institutional shifts already enacted may harden into place, making a clean pivot untenable. Foreign Analysis+1
What a Transition Could Look Like (or Fail to Look Like)
| Scenario | What Happens |
|---|---|
| Selective pivot | Some donors & power players quietly hedge bets: funding Democratic/liberal-friendly causes while still protecting old investments — “hedging risk” rather than embracing ideology. |
| Institutional takeover | Networks shift control behind dark-money groups, PACs, nonprofits, think-tanks — some rebrand, more funnel funding toward moderate/populist left policies that still protect elite economic interests. |
| Polarization freeze | Instead of pivoting, groups double down — they preserve influence by inflaming division, ensuring the political environment stays unstable; betting that chaos preserves their edge. |
| Fragmentation and exit | Some elites withdraw from playing politics (publicly) — they invest offshore, behind non-political fronts, or simply wait for the storm to pass before re-emerging. |
My View: Expect Partial Transitions, Not Full Conversions
I don’t expect a wholesale “right becomes left” shift — not realistically. What I do expect is a fractured adaptation:
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Some old-school GOP donors and influencers will try to migrate quietly into the center or even moderate left if it preserves profits or stability.
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Others will try to hold onto the base, banking on division, identity politics, and fear — because that’s the emotional currency that’s already been spent to build power.
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Some new networks — especially around money, tech, “dark money,” NGOs — will remain flexible, operating across partisan lines depending on what serves their interests best.
In short: the puppet-masters don’t always need the same puppets. They need heads that nod, money that flows, and power that endures.
If you like — I can pull up a list of about 8–10 powerful networks, donors, or institutions right now that seem likely to survive Trump — and might be positioned to shift if the political tides rotate.
And of course I thought tht was a good idea, so we will continue in part two.
